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The most popular topic in 2010

13/5/2010 - Plus or black? - 2010 The hottest economic topic

Managing Director of Deutsche Bank Asia, chief economist Ma Jun



State Council Development Research Center, Ba Shusong, deputy director of finance


    
2010, the most popular topic of what an economy? Hike!

    
From the beginning of the year, once the market interest rate expectations rise, the parties to interest rate speculation and controversy have never stopped. But the rumors of a point interest rate increase delayed from the end of the quarter to the second quarter, and then to the third quarter, and now the voice of the year without interest ... ... and this month, the central bank announced the third year, raising the deposit reserve ratio, which to raise rates, "outlook" more complicated and confusing.

    
May 8-9, held in Beijing, the sixth high-level forum on China's financial reform, economists are also differences of opinion, "
HP Laptop keyboardrate hike" into this forum, one of the most frequent keywords. To Deutsche Bank Asia Managing Director, Ma Jun, chief economist for the representatives of experts, plus interest on the agenda as soon as possible; and to State Council Development Research Ba Shusong, deputy director of central financial experts are represented said that at present very little room for rate hikes, "would not raise interest rates."

    
Serious negative interest rates, interest rates as soon as possible

    
"Negative interest rate is already very serious even than the official data shown is much more serious. This negative interest rates if the situation continues to worsen, the problem of inflation, must raise rates." Ma said, the current time is ripe for raising interest rates, and appeal to the central bank started tightening cycle as soon as possible.

    
Ma analysts say the central bank recently raised the deposit reserve ratio is intended primarily for recovery of excessive liquidity needs. However, compared with the problems with liquidity, China's current problem is more worthy of attention from all quarters of negative interest rates. First, negative interest rates will lead to savings deposits depreciation, boost consumption and stimulate the CPI to continue higher;
laptop keyboard Secondly, the negative interest rate loans would induce companies to lower the cost of a large number of loans to financial institutions, raised funds, which funds most likely be used to hoarding of raw materials and other key means of production, led to higher PPI. Therefore, the central bank raising interest rates is necessary to take timely measures to change the irrational state of negative interest rates. "In fact, raising interest rates is ripe."

    
However, if the interest rates, hot money will come in? Ma that the opposite is true: hot money come in, most of which are not bank deposits, but in the asset bubble in; this year if the interest rate, plus administrative control policy, prices will certainly drop, hot money went out, not inflow.

    
Some experts believe that, CPI difficult to judge the future trend, interest rates or not, or wait. Ma do not feel that CPI itself is manufacturing in the future prospects of the price index of output ratio. In fact, now you can see a clear upward trend in CPI.

    
Ma also said that the deposit reserve rate policy can not solve the problem, administrative measures can not substitute hike. He predicted that interest rates and other control measures during the year will be used. By then, the property market regulatory policies may also be stabilized, the policy would be more stable surface; economic growth will stabilize, inflation will come down.

    
At present very little room to raise interest rates

    
Ma Jun, who called for rate hikes, Ba Shusong clearly refuted in the speech. He said that China is very little room for rate hikes, even so, interest rate increases is extremely limited.

    
Ba Shusong said, we are currently facing the international financial environment is the era of post-crisis era of low interest rates, and low interest rates is the norm in post-crisis era, the world's interest rate policy of the. The next 1-3 years, even up to a dollar one to two times the current level, it is still historically low. This objective constraints on China's interest rate policy adjustments.

    
The negative interest rate issue, Ba Shusong acknowledge its existence, but "if this is not a long-term trend, it is acceptable."

    
Currently, inflation is 2 judge a representative low, intermediate high. Based on strong infrastructure, new projects started, led by such measures as the economy this year has peaked in the first quarter, while in the second and third quarters will see a steady decline process. "Interest rate policy is based on future decisions and economically has been dropped,
HP Pavilion NX9100 Keyboard so that this year most difficult macro-economic policy issues is not Zaiyu negative interest rates. In the past, after the price peak, the economic growth target will occupy first." Ba Shusong said.

    
At the same time, he believes that low interest rates in the external no major change in circumstances, coupled with exchange rate policy, regulation and control, if China's emergence off major rise in interest rates would exacerbate the pressure on monetary policy.

    
Ba Shusong also said that now exists in China is some local structural problem, through a number of structural policies, such as real estate policy, or special of the credit policies to solve the problem, do not necessarily need to adjust interest rates.


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